Update on the state election
The upper house is a bit more interesting. There is a new system that has not been used before in Victoria and the third parties are excitied as they seem to think they have a chance. Given that there is eight division that each elect 5 candidates, means that a quota is going to be 16.6%. Thus I can't see there being to much chance of the Greens getting up in too many areas and even less chance of Family First. As for the others including Stephen Mayne's People Power there is zero probablity of winning. I think there might be one or two Greens elected only.
In the Lower House, the odds for Greens are lowered if there is some sort of rebuilding of the Liberal vote. Given the Greens need to get in front of the Liberals in seats like Melbourne, Northcote and Brunswick, the Liberal vote might increase in these areas where it is shockingly low and likely to increase mildly.