My 2.2 cents (GST Inc.)

It is a real prick when your opinions are taxed. Australia least powerful political blog. (Plus any other crap I want to talk about.)

Sunday, November 26, 2006

My Cheap Opinion on the state election outcome

Bracks and co. have won a third term after losing a handful of seats. They were always going to lose some as they were on a record high and were holding seats that are true Liberal party heartland. I think Ted and his mob would be extremely disappointed with what looks like a mere five seat or so gain. Earlier on, I had said that anything more than ten seats would be seen as a victory and anything less would be extremely worrying for the Liberal party. Ted might have a profile now but there is little else to build off for the 2010 election.
In retrospect, this would have been the type of election where it would have been smarter to say at the very start "we can not win, but if don't punish the government for A, B and C they will do it again" and thus advocate a protest vote. This can work as was seen in '99.
The Greens would be fairly disappointed as they look like they have only won one or two upper house seats. There was was talk of them winning one in each of the metro areas and possibly one in a country area. It didn't happen mainly because the Liberal Vote was often so low, the final fifth spot was a contest between the ALP and the Greens. So all the talk about the ALP preferences in the Upper house really didn't make that of a difference in too many seats.
The Greens also fail in the lower house to win any seats. This is because the Liberal party vote didn't preference them directly and there was a bit of leaking to the ALP.
Of the other parties, Family First did quiet well and actually got above 4% in a lot of seats, so they would have got their money back on those seats. People Power lost all of their deposits but look for a little while to have pulled a rabbit out of the hat thanks to preferences in the upper house in Eastern Vic, almost like FF did in the Senate last federal election.

One final thing that is interesting is that the Victorian State Election is always going to line up with the start of the Ashes Tour given that we now have fixed terms.

All of this, I am set to the leave the state in just over a month.


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