My 2.2 cents (GST Inc.)

It is a real prick when your opinions are taxed. Australia least powerful political blog. (Plus any other crap I want to talk about.)

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Update on the state election

Actually I don't have too much really to say at this stage. I reckon the Liberals are likely to win a handful of seats off the Labor party in the lower house but there is next to no chance that they will be a change of government.

The upper house is a bit more interesting. There is a new system that has not been used before in Victoria and the third parties are excitied as they seem to think they have a chance. Given that there is eight division that each elect 5 candidates, means that a quota is going to be 16.6%. Thus I can't see there being to much chance of the Greens getting up in too many areas and even less chance of Family First. As for the others including Stephen Mayne's People Power there is zero probablity of winning. I think there might be one or two Greens elected only.

In the Lower House, the odds for Greens are lowered if there is some sort of rebuilding of the Liberal vote. Given the Greens need to get in front of the Liberals in seats like Melbourne, Northcote and Brunswick, the Liberal vote might increase in these areas where it is shockingly low and likely to increase mildly.

1 Comments:

  • At 6:14 pm, September 24, 2006, Blogger urban creature said…

    According to my calculations based on the 2002 state election, the Greens could pick up Northern Metro and Southern Metro easily (with over 14% average - 0.9 of the new 16.67% quota). They could also pick up SE Metro, East Metro West Metro providing Labor fail to get a third quota in each (and don't preference FF before the Greens!). My estimate is between 3-5 Greens in the upper house and, depending on whether the Libs preference Greens above Labor in Melbourne and Richmond - possibly even 2 in the lower house.

    Given that minor parties will have a real chance of getting into the upper house at November's election - I would expect the minor party share of the vote to improve and the Greens may not even need to rely on preferences.

     

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