My 2.2 cents (GST Inc.)

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Wednesday, February 15, 2006

The maths behind Dana Vale's suggestion

According to the last two census held in 1996 and 2001, Australia's muslim population grew from 200,000 to 280,000 in that 5 year period (Data from the ABS website). Thus the growth rate for the Australian Muslim population was around about 7% pa when compounding is taken into account. A fairly large percentage of this was caused by immigration which has since been slowed by the federal government (from a reduction in family reunion visa and increase in skilled employment visas).
So I would suggest that the growth rate has slowed somewhat in past five years. But even if hasn't it means there are 397,000 muslims in Australia today. So I will use that as a base figure. If that growth rate was to be substained it would mean that in 50 years there would be approx. 11 million muslims within Australia. The overall Australian population will be at least 35 million (at its current growth rate of 1.5%). So Muslims will still be out number by non-muslims.
However, to maintain a growth rate of 7% would require large scale immigration or the need for muslim women to push out a lot of babies. A huge amount of babies.
Take that 397,000 muslims who are at the moment in Australia. Only half of them are going to be female and then some are going to beyond the age of having kids. So lets say there are 150,000 fertile muslim women in Australia (a figure that is far too high, but again I will use it). And there will about two generations between today and fifty years from now. That will require 11.4 on average per female in the muslim population for two generations if there was no immigration. I know some females manage to have that many kids but even for muslims that is a BIG family. To totally over-take the non-muslim population in 50 years would require 14.4 children per woman. This is assuming that no body dies within the muslims community either which is just a silly assumption.
As can simply be seen, we are not about to be overrun by muslims in 50 years time and Dana Vale's suggestion is way off the mark. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, there are a lot less muslims then people think. The reason why they are noticed is because the women in particular tend to stand out from the crowd like a sore thumb.

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