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Thursday, January 20, 2005

More on the Werriwa By-Election

The media does not seem to get why the ALP lost in Cunningham to the Greens in 2002. The Liberals did not run. Hence, Liberal voters has a choice of either a Green or Labor candidate, so they voted mainly Green. If they had run, however, the Greens would not have got enough votes to win as they would have come a fairly distance third. (I know the State Exec also stuffed up and pissed the locals off but it wouldn't have matter if the Libs had run).

If the Liberals however were to pull the same trick in Werriwa, their vote is going to split between the Family First and Green candidate. And neither of these Candidates is going to preference the other over the top of the Labor candidate (barring the ALP running an openly gay or lesiban candidate as FF would probably prefence a straight Green over a gay Labor candidate.)

Of course some are talking about the Liberals taking the seat by themselves. However, 9.5% is a lot of votes to make up when one considers that the last two elections have seen near record Liberal votes.

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